Calitoro Casino<\/a> de Isaac Asimov que comparten el universo de Trántor como base.<\/p>\nTercero, la futurología reta y descubre suposiciones detrás de las visiones dominantes y competitivas del futuro. Segundo, la futurología intenta, usualmente, obtener una visión holística o sistémica basada en descubrimientos obtenidos en un rango de disciplinas diferentes. Primero, la futurología examina no solo los futuros posibles sino los probables, preferibles y futuros de "comodín". Hay tres factores que distinguen a la futurología de la investigación en otras disciplinas (aunque algunas disciplinas se traslapan en diferentes grados). La futurología es un campo interdisciplinario que estudia los cambios de ayer y de hoy, agregando y analizando tanto estrategias legas como profesionales y opiniones con respecto al mañana. Una parte clave de este proceso es la comprensión del impacto potencial futuro de las decisiones hechas por los individuos, organizaciones y gobiernos. Los métodos de pronóstico por juicio (judgemental forecasting), incorporan juicios intuitivos, opiniones y estimaciones de probabilidad, como en el caso del método Delphi, construcción de escenarios y simulaciones. Si se comprenden las causas, se pueden hacer proyecciones de las variables que influencian y utilizarse en el pronóstico.<\/p>\n
El pronóstico se aplica en muchas áreas, como pronóstico del clima, predicción de terremotos, planeación de transporte y planeación de mercados. Ambos pueden referirse a la estimación de series de tiempo, secciones cruzadas o datos longitudinales. Fijado un evento del espacio-tiempo y un observador concreto, se puede dividir el espacio-tiempo en tres regiones conexas (futuro causal, pasado causal y eventos no relacionados causalmente) separadas por el evento del presente. En la relatividad especial el futuro se considera el futuro absoluto real o el futuro del tiempo. En física se denomina futuro causal de un suceso A, al conjunto de todos los puntos del espacio-tiempo que puedan ser influidos por lo que ocurre en A. Los futuristas tenían un odio apasionado hacia las ideas del pasado, en especial las tradiciones políticas y artísticas. Los estudios del futuro no incluyen, generalmente, el trabajo de los economistas que pronostican cambios en las tasas de interés en el siguiente ciclo de negocios, o el de los administradores o inversionistas con horizontes a corto plazo.<\/p>\n
Pronóstico<\/h2>\n
Los métodos de pronóstico econométrico (econometric forecasting) asumen que es posible identificar los factores subyacentes que pueden influenciar la variable que es pronosticada. Los modernos practicantes subrayan la importancia de los futuros alternativos en vez del futuro monolítico o único, los límites de la predicción y la probabilidad frente a la creación de futuros posibles o preferibles. Las religiones consideran el futuro cuando tratan temas como el karma, la vida después de la muerte y las escatologías; estudian cómo será el fin del tiempo y del mundo. En la filosofía del presentismo se postula que solo existe el presente y que el futuro y el pasado son inexistentes. En otras palabras, es una conjetura que bien puede ser anticipada, predicha, especulada, postulada, teorizada o calculada a partir de datos en un instante de tiempo concreto.<\/p>\n
Person poder querer saber caber haber yo podré querré sabré cabré habré tú podrás querrás sabrás cabrás habrás él\/ella\/usted podrá querrá sabrá cabrá habrá nosotros\/-as podremos querremos sabremos cabremos habremos vosotros\/-as podréis querréis sabréis cabréis habréis ellos\/ellas\/ ustedes podrán querrán sabrán cabrán habrán Person hablar (sprechen) comer (essen) vivir (leben) yo hablaré comeré viviré tú hablarás comerás vivirás él\/ella hablará comerá vivirá nosotros\/-as hablaremos comeremos viviremos vosotros\/-as hablaréis comeréis viviréis ellos\/-as hablarán comerán vivirán Al mismo tiempo, busca entender los modelos que usan dichos grupos y las interpretaciones que les dan a esos modelos. El campo de la futurología también excluye a quienes hacen predicciones por medio de supuestos medios sobrenaturales. La mayoría de la planeación estratégica, que desarrolla planes operacionales para futuros preferidos con horizontes de tiempo de uno a tres años, tampoco es considerada futurología. Incluye el análisis de las fuentes, los patrones y las causas del cambio y la estabilidad, intentando desarrollar la previsión y el poder planear posibles futuros.<\/p>\n
Física<\/h2>\n
Los estudios del futuro buscan comprender lo que probablemente continuará, cambiará y qué será nuevo. A pesar del desarrollo de instrumentos cognitivos para la comprensión del futuro, la naturaleza estocástica de muchos procesos culturales y sociales ha hecho que la predicción precisa del futuro no pueda ser factible. Algunas figuras religiosas, como los profetas y adivinadores, han alegado poder ver el futuro. Según la concepción lineal de tiempo que tienen la mayoría de las civilizaciones humanas, el futuro es la porción de la línea temporal que todavía no ha sucedido.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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